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Betting on the Final Four: Who Will Win?

March 31st, 2008

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We were still waiting for Final Four odds at press time, but judging by the early word coming out of Las Vegas, it looked like you could barely slip a piece of paper between UCLA and Memphis. North Carolina figured to be a small favorite over Kansas – check our NCAAB odds for the latest.

These tiny margins make it quite a task to forecast the straight-up winner out of these four deserving teams. Making the pick itself is easy enough; I’m sticking with UCLA because of their style of play and their talent level. Expecting that pick to cash in is another matter. Memphis could beat them; the Jayhawks would have a better chance, thanks to their outside shooting.

The way North Carolina is playing right now, I suspect the Tar Heels will be the Final Four favorites. Remember, though, how Xavier allowed 19 points and 10 rebounds (five on offense) to Kevin Love in the Elite Eight round.

Bet a Buck on the NCAA Basketball Tournament

March 24th, 2008

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Two rounds of March Madness are in the books. You’ve got a dollar burning a hole in your pocket. Have you considered a future for that dollar on the NCAAB futures market?

Odds on the remaining Sweet 16 were pending at press time, but it should be a slam-dunk that the four No. 1 seeds will be your four top favorites. That’s not a fun way to spend that dollar, though. You want a Cinderella to win. Even making a great value pick like Wisconsin won’t give you the same thrill as taking a flyer on Davidson. And if the Wildcats don’t win the championship, which is very likely? It only cost you a buck.

You still want your pick to have a fighting chance, though. Davidson is plausibly competitive at No. 29 in efficiency; Western Kentucky is No. 61 and about to face the UCLA Bruins in the next round.

NCAA Tourney Easy Bets

March 17th, 2008

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So you’re looking to hit the easy button for March Madness? Can’t blame you – time is money, after all. The question is: How deep are your pockets?

If you can stomach the chalk, and if you can find a moneyline on the Round of 64, consider the fact that a No. 1 seed has never lost to a No. 16 seed since the Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985. Never. We’re talking serious exposure here – the kind that both books and bettors like to avoid – but you did want to take the brainwork out of the equation, right?

These three 1-16 matchups are already set:

Kansas vs. Portland State
UCLA vs. Mississippi Valley State
Memphis vs. Texas Arlington

North Carolina gets the winner of the play-in game between Coppin State (shades of 1997) and Mount St. Mary’s. Something’s wrong if “The Mount” doesn’t blow out the 16-20 Eagles in the easiest pointspread pick on the table.

College Basketball Betting: Worth Every Dollar

March 10th, 2008

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It’s hard to believe the college basketball season is nearly over already. But that’s what happens when half the games are played out of conference, often against cupcake opposition.

Did you bet those games anyway? Whether it’s UNC-Duke or UNC-Davidson, the money still spends the same when you win. And now that we’re approaching the March Madness portion of the schedule, all that non-con handicapping you did is about to pay off even more.

The first two rounds of the Tournament are loaded with betting opportunities. Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology work has Davidson projected as a No. 9 seed in the first round against Arizona in a battle of the Wildcats. Davidson is 18-10 ATS this year and crept into the last spot on last week’s AP Top 25. Arizona is 15-13-1 ATS on the season, but just 3-7 SU (4-6 ATS) in its last 10. Although this matchup may never happen, others like it will.

Betting on the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

March 3rd, 2008

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Remember when this was Hillary Clinton’s election to lose? Well, she’s losing it. At press time, she was 5-1 just to win the Democratic bid; Barack Obama is sweeping the nation at 2-13 to represent the Dems and 8-15 to become the next President of the United States of America.

Handicapping this election requires a certain political sangfroid that might be difficult to muster. It’s one thing to bet against your favorite team, but to make an objective bet against a politician who you agree with (or even more difficult, on a politician who makes you want to throw up) is a big test – especially given what passes for sharp political analysis these days.

If you haven’t already, turn off CNN. Turn off Fox News. Turn off all the pundits that get skewered on The Daily Show and The Colbert Report. Then – and this was the hardest part for me – turn off those two programs, too. Watch some PBS instead.



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