Betting on Big Brown in the Belmont Stakes may not be the sure thing it was in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. As strong as Big Brown has been, the Belmont Stakes is a mile and a half long, and horses with a pedigree for distance usually win this race. Big Brown was bred for strength but not stamina, and most of his ancestors had short careers of only three or four races. He also has hoof problems, and developed a small crack on one of them this week.

The other issue is the odds he’s getting. At 2/7 it takes a healthy wager to make any serious profit. Casino Drive has caught the attention of race books, and is only getting 4/1 odds to win. He’s bred for distance and is coming off a long rest going into the Belmont. Like Big Brown, he’s undefeated thus far.